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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

  • gwern estimated 25% on 2012-04-05
  • Sarokrae estimated 40% on 2012-04-05
  • Grognor estimated 10% on 2012-04-06
  • ahartell estimated 50% on 2012-04-09
  • ahartell said “If Voldemort makes it and Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense then does this prediction count as correct?on 2012-04-09
  • ahartell said “made*on 2012-04-09
  • gwern said “hm… what do people think? I was thinking of quirrel killing skeeter specifically but leaving it open for the diary being horcruxed earlieron 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 40% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 60% and said “I interpret “Voldemort made the Horcrux and is Quirrel” to count.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
  • 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-03.
  • 75th said “It was made into a horcrux in Chapter 111, but that was NOT the spirit of this question; the question was about the diary’s original nature.on 2015-03-03