HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2012-04-05
• Sarokrae estimated 15% on 2012-04-06
• lavalamp estimated 18% on 2012-04-06
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
• HonoreDB estimated 2% on 2012-04-23
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus said “I think the absence of conclusive is enough to call this wrong.” on 2016-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.