HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
- gwern estimated 20% on 2012-04-05
- Sarokrae estimated 15% on 2012-04-06
- lavalamp estimated 18% on 2012-04-06
- Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2012-04-19
- Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
- HonoreDB estimated 2% on 2012-04-23
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
- PlacidPlatypus said “I think the absence of conclusive is enough to call this wrong.” on 2016-01-01
- PlacidPlatypus judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.