HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
- gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-05
- Grognor estimated 1% and said “he might have actually known what could happen to her, unlike Harry and the Weasleys” on 2012-04-06
- lavalamp estimated 1% on 2012-04-06
- gwern said “agree with Grognor – working for Lucius and then failing spectacularly would lead to bad consequences, although Dumbledore couldn’t’ve foreseen her being squashed by Quirrel” on 2012-04-07
- ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-04-09
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
- Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
- PlacidPlatypus judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-07.