HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-05
• gwern on 2012-04-05
• Grognor estimated 1% and said “he might have actually known what could happen to her, unlike Harry and the Weasleys” on 2012-04-06
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2012-04-06
• gwern said “agree with Grognor – working for Lucius and then failing spectacularly would lead to bad consequences, although Dumbledore couldn’t’ve foreseen her being squashed by Quirrel” on 2012-04-07
• ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-07.