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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-05
  • Grognor estimated 1% and said “he might have actually known what could happen to her, unlike Harry and the Weasleyson 2012-04-06
  • lavalamp estimated 1% on 2012-04-06
  • gwern said “agree with Grognor – working for Lucius and then failing spectacularly would lead to bad consequences, although Dumbledore couldn’t’ve foreseen her being squashed by Quirrelon 2012-04-07
  • ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-04-09
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-07.