HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-04-05
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-04-06
• Grognor estimated 1% and said “he squashed her because she published - agh” on 2012-04-07
• ahartell estimated 1% and said “He squashed her for the article about him, not the one about Harry.” on 2012-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% and said “Although it’s possible we’ll never find out.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-10.