HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-05
• lavalamp estimated 6% on 2012-04-06
• ahartell estimated 3% on 2012-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-07.