HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.

• gwern estimated 3% on 2012-04-05
• gwern said “why modify the memory of multiple witnesses when you can modify just one?” on 2012-04-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-04-05
• lavalamp estimated 2% on 2012-04-06
• ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern said “It was just Skeeter charmed after all: https://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/32c4pa/the_rita_skeeter_incident_spoilers_79/” on 2016-06-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-20.