A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way

Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-03.

• Michael Stevens estimated 30% on 2012-04-06
• Jayson Virissimo said “Nicotine is still legal in the UK isn’t it?” on 2012-04-06
• gwern said “What Jayson said… Smoking hasn’t been banned and nicotine is usually considered stronger. plus, you may want to be more precise about what over the counter means in this case.” on 2012-04-07
• Michael Stevens changed their prediction from “A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be wildely legally availabe in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way” on 2012-04-07
• Jayson Virissimo said “Define “similar way”. Do you mean in a beverage?” on 2012-04-07
• RandomThinker said “You mean marijuana? See my prediction for the UShttp://predictionbook.com/predictions/6466” on 2012-04-08
• Ben Doherty estimated 40% and said “It’s a pretty short time span, give it another 10 years and something might get past the boards” on 2012-04-08
• Michael Stevens said “@jayson Hmm, maybe “something you’d find in a supermarket”” on 2012-04-08
• Michael Stevens said “@RandomThinker Marijuana isn’t a stimulant is it?” on 2012-04-08
• Jayson Virissimo said “I’m not very familiar with what is considered OTC in the UK, but I would guess that ephedrine can be purchased that way already.” on 2012-04-09
• Jayson Virissimo said “In any case, this is far too ambiguous and vague to be fit for a prediction sentence. Try operationalizing your terms.” on 2012-04-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-10
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-03.