Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country.

Created by Turtleread on 2012-04-07; known in 7 days

• Turtleread estimated 92% on 2012-04-07
• gwern said “how would one measure gop influence until 2024? what does it mean for ‘an independent and Republican’ (what, both at the same time?) to storm the country? how on earth do you think you can predict electoral cycles out to 2024 to 92%?” on 2012-04-07
• RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “Too many conditions, you should break it up into separate predictions” on 2012-04-08
• bsm estimated 5% and said “Burdensome details.” on 2012-09-03
• JoshuaZ said “Regardless of how this is judged, should have en ate of 2024 not 2012. (And yes, burdensome details + conjunction fallacy make this unlikely but I can’t say how unlikely without a more clear notion of how to measure if this is correct.) ” on 2012-09-04
• Turtleread changed the deadline from “on 2012-11-04” on 2012-12-27
• themusicgod1 said “…wouldn’t Trump be an independent and republican? He’s certainly not a status quo/establishment republican.” on 2016-10-10