HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2012-04-07
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “it’s a giant glittery Chekhov’s Gem, and it keeps not coming up! on second thought, I’m not sure it’ll ever come up much less that Harry will have to steal it.on 2012-04-07
  • spqr0a1 estimated 20% on 2012-04-09
  • Anubhav estimated 50% and said “To paraphrase Eliezer, “in this fic, obvious things are obvious”.on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 35% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 60% on 2012-04-20
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-26.
  • Oscar_Cunningham said “Anyone want to dispute this?on 2015-03-26
  • wizzwizz4 said “He nicks it from the FINAL BOSS.on 2019-09-03
  • wizzwizz4   judged this prediction right on 2019-09-03.

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