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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn't age (eg. a basilisk)

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2012-04-07
  • quicklystarfish estimated 6% on 2012-04-10
  • PotatoDumplings estimated 1% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • gwern estimated 10% on 2015-01-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.
  • gwern said “That would have been cool though.on 2016-01-01