HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
- gwern estimated 15% on 2012-04-07
- quicklystarfish estimated 1% on 2012-04-10
- Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
- PotatoDumplings estimated 5% on 2012-04-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2012-04-19
- Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
- gwern estimated 10% on 2015-01-01
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.