HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2012-04-07
• quicklystarfish estimated 1% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
• PotatoDumplings estimated 5% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern estimated 10% on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.