HP MoR: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-07
• ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-04-09
• RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2012-04-09
• Ami estimated 0% on 2012-04-18
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
• Flailingjunk estimated 1% on 2012-04-23
• jesyspa estimated 1% and said “Things are going in a direction that hints at him being revealed as Voldemort soon, which makes it unlikely.” on 2012-05-13
• DEA7TH estimated 1% and said “Unlikely after drinking unicorn blood,” on 2014-02-28
• gwern estimated 1% on 2015-01-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-26.
• Oscar_Cunningham said “Although it is still possible that Tom Riddle could have another year as defence professor.” on 2015-03-26