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HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 25% on 2012-04-07
  • gwern said “always the chance of a psychological struggle, which would work – tossing himself over a cliff or into the way of a curse, etc.on 2012-04-07
  • gwern said “see also: by ch100 2012-04-07
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham said “What if he-who-was-Quirrel is already dead, and died fighting Voldemort?on 2012-04-20
  • MTC estimated 0% on 2013-03-18
  • MTC estimated 0% and said “Ṃy original prediction was typed as 0.1%on 2013-03-18
  • MTC said “…I am trying to put in the lowest non‐zero percentage I can choose, but I can’t seem to find what that is.on 2013-03-18
  • ygert said “@MTC: All chances here have to be integer percents. That said, 0% and 100% are not supposed to be treated as such, but rather as epsilon and 1 minus epsilon respectively.on 2013-03-19
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.

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