HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-04-07
• gwern said “always the chance of a psychological struggle, which would work – tossing himself over a cliff or into the way of a curse, etc.” on 2012-04-07
• gwern said “see also: by ch100 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5016” on 2012-04-07
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham said “What if he-who-was-Quirrel is already dead, and died fighting Voldemort?” on 2012-04-20
• MTC estimated 0% on 2013-03-18
• MTC estimated 0% and said “Ṃy original prediction was typed as 0.1%” on 2013-03-18
• MTC said “…I am trying to put in the lowest non‐zero percentage I can choose, but I can’t seem to find what that is.” on 2013-03-18
• ygert said “@MTC: All chances here have to be integer percents. That said, 0% and 100% are not supposed to be treated as such, but rather as epsilon and 1 minus epsilon respectively.” on 2013-03-19
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.