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HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-07
  • gwern said “latest arc shows hermione is being targeted, but a successful killing in front of harry?on 2012-04-07
  • Anubhav estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2012-04-19
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% and said “My initial estimate seems overconfident, given how specific this is and how little evidence is available. A big variable is how much story logic is in play.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% and said “Conjunction.on 2012-04-20
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2012-04-29
  • gwern said “ looking good so far. now we just need quirrel responsible for the trollon 2013-06-30
  • 75th estimated 100% and said “I’m a bit late to this, but I thought I’d cast my vote anyway, since I think there’s a chance that a comment of mine is where this prediction came from.on 2013-07-13
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • Anubhav   judged this prediction right on 2015-02-24.