HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-07
• gwern said “latest arc shows hermione is being targeted, but a successful killing in front of harry?” on 2012-04-07
• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2012-04-19
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% and said “My initial estimate seems overconfident, given how specific this is and how little evidence is available. A big variable is how much story logic is in play.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% and said “Conjunction.” on 2012-04-20
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2012-04-29
• gwern said “http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/89/ looking good so far. now we just need quirrel responsible for the troll” on 2013-06-30
• 75th estimated 100% and said “I’m a bit late to this, but I thought I’d cast my vote anyway, since I think there’s a chance that a comment of mine is where this prediction came from.” on 2013-07-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• Anubhav   judged this prediction right on 2015-02-24.