HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-07
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% and said “Assuming the soul fragment that stays with the mind does not count.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• Sarokrae estimated 3% on 2012-04-29
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.