HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-08
• ahartell estimated 20% on 2012-04-09
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• DEA7TH estimated 5% and said “Not a good way to hide a dangerous weapon.” on 2014-02-28
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.