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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2012-04-08
  • gwern said “Chekhov’s Rock!on 2012-04-08
  • Michael Stevens estimated 1% on 2012-04-08
  • ahartell estimated 10% on 2012-04-09
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2012-04-10
  • PotatoDumplings estimated 1% on 2012-04-10
  • LauralH estimated 80% on 2012-04-11
  • Grognor estimated 30% on 2012-04-18
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 55% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 40% and said “I suggest omitting “or contains”. A philosophers’ stone wrapped in normal rock would in some sense “contain an ordinary rock”. on 2012-04-20
  • ygert estimated 50% on 2013-01-02
  • itaibn estimated 50% on 2013-03-18
  • itaibn estimated 30% on 2013-03-19
  • 75th estimated 60% and said “I really want to make this higher, but as I’m not confident in Dumbledore’s ultimate reasoning for giving Harry the rock, I can’t somehow be more confident as to what the rock ison 2013-07-13
  • nigr estimated 99% and said “it was planned to be horcrux by Voldemorton 2013-08-15
  • DEA7TH estimated 40% and said “Could be, but it would be loss of opportunity for Dumbledore to give Harry something significant which protects him.on 2014-02-28
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01on 2015-01-01
  • itaibn estimated 87% and said “These predictions are all really old; a new prediction based on recent spoilerson 2015-03-03
  • 75th   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-16.