HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2012-04-08
• gwern said “Chekhov’s Rock!” on 2012-04-08
• Michael Stevens estimated 1% on 2012-04-08
• ahartell estimated 10% on 2012-04-09
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2012-04-10
• PotatoDumplings estimated 1% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 80% on 2012-04-11
• Grognor estimated 30% on 2012-04-18
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 55% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 40% and said “I suggest omitting “or contains”. A philosophers’ stone wrapped in normal rock would in some sense “contain an ordinary rock”. ” on 2012-04-20
• ygert estimated 50% on 2013-01-02
• itaibn estimated 50% on 2013-03-18
• itaibn estimated 30% on 2013-03-19
• 75th estimated 60% and said “I really want to make this higher, but as I’m not confident in Dumbledore’s ultimate reasoning for giving Harry the rock, I can’t somehow be more confident as to what the rock is” on 2013-07-13
• nigr estimated 99% and said “it was planned to be horcrux by Voldemort” on 2013-08-15
• DEA7TH estimated 40% and said “Could be, but it would be loss of opportunity for Dumbledore to give Harry something significant which protects him.” on 2014-02-28
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• itaibn estimated 87% and said “These predictions are all really old; a new prediction based on recent spoilers” on 2015-03-03
• 75th   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-16.