HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2012-04-08
• gwern said “this was a harder prediction before the last 10 chapters or so…” on 2012-04-08
• ahartell estimated 95% on 2012-04-09
• RobertLumley said “At what point in time is this going to be evaluated? It’s possible Lucius would change his mind over the course of the story.” on 2012-04-09
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort” on 2012-04-09
• Anubhav estimated 95% on 2012-04-10
• PotatoDumplings estimated 95% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 90% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 85% on 2012-04-20
• DEA7TH said “I think this can be judged correct?” on 2014-02-28
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-20.