HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2012-04-08
• ahartell estimated 0% on 2012-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
• disinter estimated 0% and said “0.1%” on 2012-04-20
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
• pkfalu92 estimated 30% on 2013-06-30
• William-Quixote estimated 5% on 2013-07-12
• DEA7TH estimated 5% on 2014-02-28
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-20.