HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2012-04-08
• ahartell estimated 70% on 2012-04-09
• PotatoDumplings estimated 90% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 95% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 45% on 2012-04-19
• disinter estimated 40% on 2012-04-20
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 40% on 2012-04-20
• Flailingjunk estimated 40% on 2012-04-23
• HonoreDB estimated 90% on 2012-04-23
• jesyspa estimated 85% on 2012-05-13
• Flailingjunk estimated 20% on 2012-09-21
• drethelin estimated 66% on 2012-10-04
• ygert estimated 88% on 2013-01-02
• Tuxedage estimated 50% on 2013-01-02
• 75th estimated 100% on 2013-07-13
• nigr estimated 99% on 2013-08-15
• JayDee estimated 90% on 2013-08-21
• RobertLumley estimated 80% on 2014-07-29
• 75th   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-03.