HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2012-04-08
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 99% on 2012-04-11
• Bill_Stickers estimated 1% and said “No way! Narcissa wanted out after Aberforth got killed. She wanted to take Draco, but the plan went wonky. She’s alive and in hiding.” on 2012-04-19
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 85% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 92% on 2012-09-17
• ygert estimated 70% on 2013-01-10
• 75th estimated 95% on 2013-07-16
• nigr estimated 90% on 2013-08-15
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.
• 75th said “At least I’m in decent company with my idiocy” on 2015-03-12