HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-04-08
• gwern said “the scenario being something like voldemort kills narcissa to inflame lucius, and the Order claims responsibility because they wouldn’t be believed and it serves as a deterrent to the other death eaters” on 2012-04-08
• Anubhav estimated 25% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 15% on 2012-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-09-17
• 75th estimated 0% and said “Narcissa’s death was a strategic victory for the good guys; Voldemort would not just hand that to them.” on 2013-07-13
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.