HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle)

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2012-04-08
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2012-04-10
• Grognor estimated 5% on 2012-04-18
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 3% on 2012-04-20
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 3% and said “Doesn’t make for a good story, but happens to real people. So EY might go for it.” on 2012-04-27
• HonoreDB estimated 15% and said “Heh, so when Dumbledore said ‘The Death Eaters learned, toward the end of the war, not to attack the Order’s families.’ he was referring to a Gettier Injunction: an ethically correct behavior justified by an incorrect belief.” on 2012-04-27
• gwern estimated 10% and said “bumping based on ch90 “Strength of will is demanded for the cursed fire not to turn upon you and consume you”” on 2013-07-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-07-03
• 75th estimated 0% on 2013-07-13
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.