PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

  • gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-08
  • Anubhav estimated 25% on 2012-04-10
  • ArisKatsaris estimated 65% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 12% on 2012-09-17
  • ygert estimated 20% on 2012-12-25
  • 75th estimated 95% and said “Yep.on 2013-07-13
  • 75th estimated 90% and said “Revising slightly downward as promised at the bottom of http://lesswrong.com/lw/huq/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9dek .on 2013-07-16
  • nigr estimated 10% on 2013-08-15
  • 75th said “Ah geez, this Phoenix’s Egg thing has me spooked. I’m not changing my percentage, but if it ends up that Amelia Bones had nothing to do with this I am judging this wrong and never showing my face in any HPMoR discussion forum again.on 2015-03-11
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.