HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-08
• Anubhav estimated 25% on 2012-04-10
• ArisKatsaris estimated 65% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 12% on 2012-09-17
• ygert estimated 20% on 2012-12-25
• 75th estimated 95% and said “Yep.” on 2013-07-13
• 75th estimated 90% and said “Revising slightly downward as promised at the bottom of http://lesswrong.com/lw/huq/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9dek .” on 2013-07-16
• nigr estimated 10% on 2013-08-15
• 75th said “Ah geez, this Phoenix’s Egg thing has me spooked. I’m not changing my percentage, but if it ends up that Amelia Bones had nothing to do with this I am judging this wrong and never showing my face in any HPMoR discussion forum again.” on 2015-03-11
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.