HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy by accident

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-04-08
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2012-04-19
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% and said “Both story logic and normal logic argue against this: it would be a lame resolution, and seems way too incompetent to fit Dumbledore.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
• 75th estimated 1% on 2013-07-13
• 75th estimated 0% and said “Why’d I type 1? That should have been 0.” on 2013-07-13
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.