HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-08
• LauralH estimated 50% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 57% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
• 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
• 75th estimated 10% and said “Updating this as I updated the main “Dumbledore killed Narcissa” post. Should note that I think Dumbledore may have been involved, and it was for exactly this reason, but I don’t think he actually cast the spell that did it.” on 2013-07-17
• ChristianKl estimated 20% on 2013-10-29
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.