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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-08
  • LauralH estimated 50% on 2012-04-11
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 57% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
  • 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
  • 75th estimated 10% and said “Updating this as I updated the main “Dumbledore killed Narcissa” post. Should note that I think Dumbledore may have been involved, and it was for exactly this reason, but I don’t think he actually cast the spell that did it.on 2013-07-17
  • ChristianKl estimated 20% on 2013-10-29
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.

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