HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 35% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 70% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 75% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 70% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 85% on 2012-04-20
• ygert estimated 90% on 2013-01-02
• nigr estimated 75% on 2013-08-15
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-20.