HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 25% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 75% on 2012-04-11
• Bill_Stickers estimated 99% and said ““I’m not [serious/Sirius]” pretty much sums it up, really.” on 2012-04-19
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 40% on 2012-04-20
• jesyspa estimated 85% on 2012-05-13
• ygert estimated 85% on 2013-01-02
• nigr estimated 50% on 2013-08-15
• JayDee estimated 80% on 2013-08-21
• gwern said “Bill: ’I’m not Sirius’ merely says that it’s not Sirius; it doesn’t say who it is; cultureulterior makes a good case for PM Fudge http://predictionbook.com/predictions/24307” on 2014-03-10
• gwern estimated 60% on 2015-01-25
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-20.