HP MoR: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 8% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 12% on 2012-09-17
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-09-17
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-20.