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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-17.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2012-04-09
  • gwern said “everyone is powered up?” on 2012-04-09
  • drethelin estimated 90% and said “I can’t imagine him being a total buffoon, though maybe he’ll play one. ” on 2012-04-09
  • Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 60% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham said “Competent at magic, or just at publicity?” on 2012-04-20
  • Afforess   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-08-17.
  • Afforess said “Never appeared in HPMoR” on 2015-08-17
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-17.
  • JoshuaZ said “Conditional on appearance is in prediction so prediction should be either kept as unknown or withdrawn. ” on 2015-08-17
  • Afforess said “If it is conditional, then the condition was not satisfied, and this is wrong.” on 2015-08-17
  • gwern withdrew the prediction on 2016-06-20