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HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2012-04-09
  • gwern said “Hat & Cloak’s groundhog day attack was Obliviation, IIRC. this prediction would falsify Harry’s theory, obviouslyon 2012-04-09
  • gwern said “BTW everyone, the full collection of HP MoR predictions: 2012-04-09
  • quicklystarfish estimated 0% and said “0.01%on 2012-04-10
  • Futschi estimated 30% and said “It doesn’t have to be a memory charm if something posessed her / altered her behaviour strong enough so she in fact attempted to kill Draco.on 2012-04-14
  • gwern said “I think the reasoning there is that she would remember being possessed or altered, like Imperiused people remember being imperiusedon 2012-04-15
  • disinter estimated 60% on 2012-04-17
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% and said “I assume mere Obliviation does not count? That could be used to cover up some other kind of mental coercion, e.g., possession, imperious.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • Flailingjunk estimated 1% on 2012-04-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 70% on 2013-03-03
  • lavalamp estimated 70% and said “Assuming obliviation doesn’t count.on 2013-03-03
  • HonoreDB estimated 15% and said “I don’t think she was False-Memory-charmed until the night of the attack, but there’s little reason to think she wasn’t then.on 2013-03-03
  • simplicio estimated 10% on 2013-03-04
  • player_03 estimated 40% and said “I’m pretty sure the encounter with Hat & Cloak would have been enough, even without a false memory charm. But an additional nudge before that battle would have helped.on 2014-04-26
  • HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.