We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k)
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-04-10
- gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-26
- RandomThinker said “@gwern thanks! I bet we have a lot of techies on here, lots of people should have an opinion on this. ” on 2012-04-27
- RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “Facebook killed the chance. Dead!” on 2012-05-29
- JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2012-05-29
- RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2013-05-20
- RandomThinker said “I overreacted to the Facebook debacle. There’s still a chance for this.” on 2013-05-20
- Tuxedage estimated 50% on 2013-05-21
- RandomThinker said “NASDAQ almost 4k now. Was 3k when the prediction was made.” on 2013-10-22
- RandomThinker said “20% in 2 years is very doable” on 2013-10-22
- RandomThinker said “4150 now. Still no bites?” on 2014-01-08
- Ben Doherty estimated 55% on 2014-01-09
- RandomThinker estimated 68% and said “4485, almost 4500 now. 10% in 1.5 years.” on 2014-07-03
- rebellionkid estimated 70% on 2014-09-21
- RandomThinker said “NASDAQ at 4787 now. Plus Uber at 40billion. The bubble has returned! Hallelujah!” on 2014-11-26
- RandomThinker said “One year to get in your bubble activities, before it’s over” on 2014-11-26
- sweeneyrod said “Shouldn’t this be due in 2016, rather than 2106?” on 2014-11-27
- RandomThinker changed the deadline from “on 2106-12-31” on 2014-11-27
- RandomThinker said “good point @sweeneyrod” on 2014-11-27
- RandomThinker said “It was 4806 late Dec 2014. This almost came true a year early.” on 2015-01-21
- RandomThinker said “4961 now.” on 2015-02-24
- RandomThinker said “Happened. First time in 15 years, just on time! http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/06/business/a-changed-nasdaq-makes-the-long-climb-back-to-5000.html” on 2015-03-06
- RandomThinker judged this prediction right on 2015-03-06.
- JoshuaZ said “Ok. I really called that one wrong. ” on 2015-03-06
- PseudonymousUser said “Well done.” on 2015-11-27