Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary)

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-04-11
• gwern estimated 60% and said “figure <50% chance romney will be president & no republican will run against him, then factor in whether he will run, whether he will do as well as in 2012…” on 2012-04-11
• Ken estimated 80% on 2012-04-11
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2012-04-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2012-04-30
• davidmanheim estimated 99% on 2016-01-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2016-01-29
• Temeraire estimated 100% and said “He has withdrawn” on 2016-02-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2016-02-12
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2016-02-13
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2016-02-15.