HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor'

Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-04-11
• RobertLumley estimated 60% on 2012-04-11
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: The glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor'” on 2012-04-11
• gwern said “there’s 2 glitches, a constant and an intermittent, see http://hpmor.com/chapter/25” on 2012-04-11
• Michael Stevens estimated 70% on 2012-04-11
• disinter estimated 25% on 2012-04-17
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 20% on 2012-04-20
• JayDee estimated 60% on 2013-08-21
• Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-26.