HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017

Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-04-13
• gwern said “$100 vs $5 bet between me and Eliezer: http://lesswrong.com/lw/bfo/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/6bl7?context=3” on 2012-04-13
• gwern said “added to registry: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/mediawiki/index.php?title=Bets_registry&diff=next&oldid=5815” on 2012-04-13
• gwern said “note that exact conditions determined by my comment on LW: judgment by Carl Shulman or a mutually acceptable arbitrator” on 2012-04-13
• Grognor estimated 2% on 2012-04-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “Is it actually eligible to win?” on 2012-04-14
• papermachine estimated 1% and said “Dude whatever.” on 2012-04-15
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% and said “eligible AND nominated AND win” on 2012-04-20
• gimpf estimated 5% on 2012-05-05
• Grognor said “Underconfident. Should have gone with 1%.” on 2012-09-03
• dhoe estimated 1% on 2013-02-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-02-05
• Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2013-02-06
• Mati estimated 2% on 2014-12-19
• David estimated 5% on 2015-06-12
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2015-06-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-29.