Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-04-14
• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-14
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 35% on 2012-04-20
• Leo estimated 40% on 2012-05-02
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2012-05-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2012-05-04
• Pablo estimated 3% on 2012-10-02
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-10-02
• RandomThinker said “Yea, looks like rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated” on 2012-10-02
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-15
• RandomThinker said “back in play, but time running out. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSBRE8B90CB20121210” on 2012-12-10
• Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
• Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-12-31.
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
• RandomThinker said “Chavez is dead! 3 months off” on 2013-03-06
• Tuxedage said “Ouch. That has to hurt, to be so close but still wrong.” on 2013-03-07