gwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus.

Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-28.

• ShadyPharmacist estimated 99% on 2012-04-15
• Jayson Virissimo said “Hint: Try choosing a prediction statement that is easily falsifiable or verifiable and that won’t be controversial to judge after the fact. Perhaps you should operationalize some of you terms.” on 2012-04-15
• gwern said “I look forward to the judgment with interest” on 2012-04-15
• RobertLumley said “What Jayson_Virissimo said.” on 2012-04-16
• Grognor said “_” on 2012-04-18
• papermachine estimated 99% on 2012-04-19
• ShadyPharmacist   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-28.
• ShadyPharmacist said “gwern is a good member of the community who I gave a bad rap. His opinions since this prediction have been educated and measured fairly.” on 2012-04-28