PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will come to respect those people who endeavor to know systems of thought, fail, and yet still pretend comprehension/mastery when presenting the topic to others.

Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

  • ShadyPharmacist estimated 1% on 2012-04-15
  • Grognor said “what the fuck” on 2012-06-08
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-28.