In my Wikipedia experiment, >=50% of the links will be restored.

Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-04-15
• gwern said “see also prediction #6585” on 2012-04-15
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
• gwern said “exactly 3 were restored. I was way overconfident on this on this.” on 2012-05-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-30.