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HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder)

Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

  • Ami estimated 40% on 2012-04-18
  • Grognor estimated 10% on 2012-04-18
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “I pointed out on LW that Snape’s last-minute cleanup of notes is inconsistent with such an immaculately planned & executed frame” on 2012-04-18
  • Ami changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder)” on 2012-04-18
  • gwern said “along with other problems with Snape, that is. cloak & hat: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6608” on 2012-04-18
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
  • HonoreDB estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-04-26
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2012-05-05
  • qznc estimated 5% on 2014-07-14
  • HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.