HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder)

Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-04-18
• gwern said “obviously this does not exclude Quirrel if he was Cloak & Hat” on 2012-04-18
• disinter estimated 85% on 2012-04-20
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 70% on 2012-04-20
• HonoreDB estimated 93% on 2012-04-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2012-04-21
• Sarokrae estimated 80% on 2012-04-29
• gimpf estimated 75% on 2012-05-05
• Benja estimated 80% on 2013-06-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2013-06-29
• 75th estimated 100% on 2013-07-13
• nigr estimated 99% and said “yes” on 2013-08-15
• player_03 estimated 88% on 2014-04-26
• qznc estimated 50% on 2014-07-14
• player_03   judged this prediction right on 2015-02-22.