Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications

Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.

• lweismantel estimated 50% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 60% on 2012-04-20
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2012-04-20
• gwern estimated 40% and said “from following DNB, more than half failed replications is fairly plausible…” on 2012-04-20
• beo_shaffer estimated 35% on 2012-04-21
• beo_shaffer said “@gwern by dnb do you mean dual n back?” on 2012-04-22
• gwern said “yes” on 2012-04-22
• beo_shaffer estimated 40% on 2012-06-12
• chimpsky estimated 33% on 2012-06-12
• CarlShulman estimated 43% on 2012-06-13
• CarlShulman estimated 26% on 2012-07-06
• hedges estimated 90% on 2013-03-22
• hedges estimated 45% on 2013-04-27
• hedges said “61/100 failed replication.” on 2015-05-01
• hedges   judged this prediction right on 2015-05-01.