Replication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains.

Created by gwern on 2012-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-04-22
• gwern said “some serious-looking problems pointed out on GRG, and also on blogs eg. http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2012/04/20/buckyball_longevity_theres_a_problem.php” on 2012-04-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2012-04-22
• Selector estimated 80% and said “Should bucky balls increase lifespan by 25%, we will start living till 110 years. That would be awesome.” on 2012-04-26
• gwern said “it would be nice, but highly unlikely. I list some criticisms in http://lesswrong.com/lw/bl3/living_forever_is_hard_part_3_the_state_of_life/ partially redundant with above” on 2012-04-26
• Selector said “that is a great link, gwern. Thanks a lot :)” on 2012-04-27
• Malgidus estimated 85% and said “Would be game-changing. More promising research in other areas.” on 2013-03-27
• gwern said “I thinking this is probably correct because we haven’t heard anything about the C60 buckyballs since 2012, which means it was a huge failure…” on 2018-04-22
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2018-12-10
• pranomostro   judged this prediction right on 2020-02-09.