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The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

  • freyley estimated 21% on 2009-10-20
  • anonym   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-20.
  • anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-20.
  • anonym estimated 35% on 2009-10-20
  • Jack estimated 5% and said “Ethical constraints on brain testing mean we won’t have enough information to make this possible by 2026.” on 2009-10-20
  • Arenamontanus estimated 50% and said “It is not bioethics that is the hard problem, it is finding ways of translating media into the individual ‘mentalese’ of different brains.” on 2009-10-20
  • ChristianKl said “What the heck do terms like “relatively safe” (in what extent personality changes okay), “directly” and “media” mean here? ” on 2009-10-20
  • ChristianKl said “We already have tech today to do artificial vision by wiring electrodes to neurons and the person didn’t die.” on 2009-10-20
  • archgoon   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-20.
  • freyley   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-21.
  • freyley said “The original intent of this prediction was describing the ability to be watching uploaded videos while sitting in class/meetings without anyone knowing.” on 2009-10-21
  • Pavitra said “This may exist now, depending on the values of “exist”, “relatively safe”, “media”, and “directly”. is.gd/4wN7I” on 2009-10-23
  • freyley said ““directly” means the media will be running on the brain as computer, bypassing external input systems such as the eyes. So no to artificial retinae” on 2009-10-30
  • gwern estimated 5% on 2010-10-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-05-24
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-12
  • lavalamp estimated 1% on 2011-11-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 36% and said “I don’t think ‘relatively safe’ will quite be the way to describe it, though the kids will probably call it that” on 2016-10-06
  • regex estimated 20% on 2017-09-22
  • pranomostro estimated 4% on 2018-11-25
  • Baeboo estimated 5% on 2018-12-12
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26