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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.

Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2012-05-01
  • gwern said “http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2012/04/30/neutrinos-to-give-high-frequency-traders-the-millisecond-edge/ 30ms edge” on 2012-05-01
  • gwern said “don’t see it happening – emitters & detectors really expensive, single-purpose (unlike cables), and the situation could be completely worthless based on tiny regulatory tweaks, which an extravagance like this might well cause!” on 2012-05-01
  • RandomThinker estimated 2% and said “I give that about the same credence as tachyons. I hear those are pretty fast!” on 2012-05-01
  • gwern said “nothing to do with FTL…” on 2012-05-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-05-02
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 3% on 2012-05-02
  • arthurb estimated 25% and said “The fastest line between New-York and Chicago currently uses microwaves. The previous fastest was built by SpreadNetworks for $140M. The world’s biggest neutrino detector only cost $280. Only 25% because of regulatory risk.” on 2012-05-02
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2012-05-05
  • gimpf estimated 5% on 2012-05-05
  • JoeK estimated 1% on 2012-05-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Thinking about this more, bandwith is going to be a serious limiting issue. ” on 2014-04-28
  • arthurb estimated 20% and said “JoshuaZ: bandwith doesn’t matter that much. Being able to send a single bit (market jumped up/down) can be enormously valuable.(lowering prediction due to increasing regulatory concerns)” on 2014-08-07
  • JoshuaZ said “Arthurb, you would need for this to be useful being able to send at least one bit a second or so.That’s a resolution of a neutrino signature which is extremely difficult to get. ” on 2014-08-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-12-10
  • pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-10
  • Baeboo estimated 4% on 2018-12-12
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “looks like near-zero research since the 2012 burst of interest, and definitely not any productized useful systems.” on 2022-02-18
  • M estimated 0% on 2022-02-19
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-05-01.