Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google.

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-05-01
• RandomThinker said “No real way to measure, so will have to be judged by the crowd in 2016. Right now, I’m assuming people don’t think this.” on 2012-05-01
• gwern estimated 20% and said “and what has MS ever done in social networking that didn’t suck?” on 2012-05-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2012-05-02
• RandomThinker said “So far this statement is debatable right now, because they both don’t quite “get” it. But I think Microsoft’s investment in facebook, xbox live and the new windows phone will let it overtake Google in a few years time. ” on 2012-05-02
• RandomThinker said “I don’t think either of them will particularly get it either, but I think MS’ indirect approach is more likely to be effective than Google’s head-first charge approach. Compare IBM and MS vs. the internet in the 90s.” on 2012-05-02
• themusicgod1 said “Microsoft: bought LinkedIn.Google : Controls SMS for much of the world.Tie?” on 2016-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.