We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October.

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.

• jes5199 estimated 75% on 2009-10-20
• archgoon   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-20.
• freyley   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-21.
• freyley estimated 49% on 2009-10-21
• jes5199 changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-01” and changed their prediction from “We will not all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October.” on 2009-10-21
• Larks estimated 80% on 2010-07-22
• gwern estimated 70% and said “Aerial and logistics support is the value of the US in Iraq; that could be done from Kuwait. Normally I would be skeptical, but they can leave and not leave.” on 2010-07-29
• Jennifer estimated 3% and said “My uncertainty is based on definitions the judge may use. Seems to have happened already?” on 2010-09-29
• divide estimated 98% on 2010-09-29
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-10-02.
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_occupation_of_Iraq#Final_departure_of_U” on 2010-10-02
• gwern said “ Author chose to specify combat troops and not troops in general so I’m going to close this as wrong.” on 2010-10-02