Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24.
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-05-05
- RandomThinker said “They just shut down the last one http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/06/world/asia/last-reactor-of-50-in-japan-is-shut-down.html?hp” on 2012-05-05
- Selector_3 said “I hope they don’t have to switch some of them on again. I’m in favour of increased solar and wind energy sources. Nuclear power plants are not the way forward” on 2012-05-06
- Jayson Virissimo said “Does this mean “will restart one or more nuclear reactors” or “will restart all nuclear reactors”?” on 2012-05-06
- gwern estimated 65% and said “Selector: and where on earth in Japan are you going to get Japan quantities of solar & wind? shutting them down is a bonehead move; Germany can afford this kind of luxury because they burn Russia’s hydrocarbons… ” on 2012-05-06
- gwern said “Jayson: unless RandomThinker clarifies otherwise, I will judge as >=1 reactors.” on 2012-05-06
- RandomThinker said “@jayson I was thinking 1, but since it’s at 0 now, if they restart 1 they’ll probably restart a few. All is too strict.” on 2012-05-06
- Isaac estimated 55% on 2012-05-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2012-05-07
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on 2012-05-07
- Jayson Virissimo said “BTW, Germans do regularly use nuclear power; they buy it from France.” on 2012-05-08
- Milamber estimated 75% and said “They are in a tough spot. Not many alternatives.” on 2012-05-08
- gwern said “Jayson: good point – they’re making France their shabbos goy. Not a consideration for Japan since they have no powerlines to China or Russia that I know of, and the former has enough energy demand of its own…” on 2012-05-08
- RandomThinker said “Happened. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/world/asia/japan-restarts-a-nuclear-reactor.html?_r=1&hp” on 2012-07-02
- RandomThinker judged this prediction right on 2012-07-24.
- simplicio said “80” on 2013-02-20