Facebook IPO price will “pop” above $45 on first day

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-18.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-05-05
• RandomThinker said “The price range is set at $28-$35. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/stocks/story/2012-05-03/facebook-ipo-pricing/54737512/1” on 2012-05-05
• gwern estimated 60% and said “there’s lots of demand, as portrayed by the press anyway…” on 2012-05-06
• RandomThinker estimated 75% and said “http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577409923406193162.html IPO priced @ 38, so 45 isn’t much of a jump. Some banker is telling people to set a limit order of $55 for first day lol ” on 2012-05-17
• RandomThinker said “not looking good… it fizzled fast :)” on 2012-05-18
• RandomThinker said “Hmm Google finance makes the high of the day @ exactly 45. I don’t know whether I can mark this as a yes or a no. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ” on 2012-05-18
• RandomThinker said “45 is the official high of the day, but you can’t see it on the chart. It’s like a “phantom” high. Gwern what do you think? How do we mark this?” on 2012-05-18
• PseudonymousUser said “That $45 seems like a fake high; http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/real-time shows a high of $43.02. Even if the $45 were real, $45 is not above $45” on 2012-05-18
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-18.
• RandomThinker said “@bobpage ok. That’s fair. I should have phrased it 45 or above :) I got pretty close, at least to the phantom high.” on 2012-05-19
• RandomThinker said “Interesting that the “crowd” predicted a closing price of $55. 2261 people, some fairly famous. http://facebookipodayclosingprice.com/” on 2012-06-05