Death Note: Equestria: Spike is L

Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-10.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2012-05-10
• gwern estimated 0% and said “will bump deadline if I catch up to the latest chapter and turns out it hasn’t been revealed yet” on 2012-05-10
• gwern estimated 70% and said “whups. anyway, I’m up to ch17 and there’s very strong reason to think spike is not L and L is someone else. in my defense, spike being L fit everything I’d read so far and would be a great twist as opposed to L being a new char” on 2012-05-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-10.